3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:00 · SK Brann II vs Austevoll
Likeliest: SK Brann II win · 47%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Brann II47%37%+10
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Austevoll27%41%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 72% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 59% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 63% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 48% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Brann II
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 12 · at Djerv 1919 (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Varegg (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Askøy FK (A)4-1
- Sep 21 · v Fyllingsdalen (H)7-0
- Sep 14 · at Asane Fotball 2 (A)2-1
Austevoll
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Førde (H)3-2
- Oct 3 · at Sogndal IL II (A)3-2
- Sep 26 · v Gneist (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Askøy FK (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Djerv 1919 (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | SK Brann II | Austevoll |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.