Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Sep 20 · 17:15 · SK Brann vs Bodø/Glimt
Likeliest: Bodø/Glimt win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Brann18%21%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Bodø/Glimt61%58%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 72% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 79% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Brann
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 16 · at Os TF (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at IK Start (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)0-0
- Aug 27 · v PAOK (H)3-2
Bodø/Glimt
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 14 · v Sandefjord Fotball (H)3-2
- Sep 10 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Rosenborg BK (H)4-2
- Aug 25 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | SK Brann | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.