Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · SK Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps
Likeliest: SK Brann win · 86%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 86% for the home win. The market says 82%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Brann86%82%+4
OursMarket
Draw9%12%−2
OursMarket
Lincoln Red Imps5%6%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 94% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 15% | 18% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 88% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 93% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Brann
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 9 · v Viking FK (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Os TF (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at IK Start (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)1-2
Lincoln Red Imps
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 27 · at Larne FC (A)2-0
- Aug 20 · v Larne FC (H)0-2
- Aug 13 · at Omonia Nicosia (A)0-1
- Aug 6 · v Omonia Nicosia (H)1-1
- Jul 28 · v Mjällby AIF (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | SK Brann | Lincoln Red Imps |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.