Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 17:30 · SK Rapid Wien vs SC Austria Lustenau
Likeliest: SK Rapid Wien win · 80%
Likely score: 3–0
A tight one: we make it 80% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Rapid Wien80%78%+2
OursMarket
Draw12%13%−2
OursMarket
SC Austria Lustenau9%9%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 71% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 91% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 22% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 87% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 90% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 3.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Rapid Wien
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 16 · v TSV Hartberg (H)3-1
- Oct 11 · at LASK (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · v WSG Tirol (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · at Wolfsberger AC (A)3-0
- Sep 2 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)1-5
SC Austria Lustenau
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v LASK (H)0-4
- Oct 11 · at TSV Hartberg (A)3-4
- Sep 19 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Austria Wien (A)1-2
- Aug 28 · v WSG Tirol (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | SK Rapid Wien | SC Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.