Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Fri, Oct 16 · 17:30 · SK Rapid Wien vs TSV Hartberg
Likeliest: SK Rapid Wien win · 69%
Likely score: 3–0
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 72%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Rapid Wien69%72%−3
OursMarket
Draw19%17%+2
OursMarket
TSV Hartberg13%11%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 89% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 28% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 83% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 87% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 3.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Rapid Wien
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at LASK (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · v WSG Tirol (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · at Wolfsberger AC (A)3-0
- Sep 2 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)1-5
- Aug 30 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-1
TSV Hartberg
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v SC Austria Lustenau (H)4-3
- Sep 20 · v LASK (H)3-3
- Sep 13 · at WSG Tirol (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v SV Ried (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SK Rapid Wien | TSV Hartberg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.