Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Fri, Sep 18 · 17:30 · SK Rapid Wien vs WSG Tirol
Likeliest: SK Rapid Wien win · 70%
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Rapid Wien70%68%+2
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−3
OursMarket
WSG Tirol15%14%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 86% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 32% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 83% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Rapid Wien
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Wolfsberger AC (A)3-0
- Sep 2 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)1-5
- Aug 30 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-1
- Aug 26 · v Hearts (H)1-1
- Aug 20 · at Hearts (A)2-2
WSG Tirol
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 13 · v TSV Hartberg (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · at Austria Wien (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · at SC Austria Lustenau (A)4-0
- Aug 16 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)0-3
- Aug 7 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | SK Rapid Wien | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-0 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.