Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · SK Sigma Olomouc vs AC Sparta Praha
Likeliest: AC Sparta Praha win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Sigma Olomouc27%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
AC Sparta Praha47%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Sigma Olomouc
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v Bohemians Praha 1905 (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Baník Ostrava (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v FK Pardubice (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at 1. FC Slovácko (A)2-1
AC Sparta Praha
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 16 · at FC Ararat-Armenia (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v FK Jablonec (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at FC Hradec Králové (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v SK Slavia Praha (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at SK Líšeň (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | SK Sigma Olomouc | AC Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.