Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:00 · SK Slavia Praha vs Mladá Boleslav
Likeliest: SK Slavia Praha win · 79%
Likely score: 2–1
A 79% home win. The market says 75%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Slavia Praha79%75%+4
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
Mladá Boleslav8%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 88% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Slavia Praha
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)0-0
- Oct 13 · at Sabah FK (A)0-2
- Oct 9 · at FC Zlín (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at FK Varnsdorf (A)5-1
Mladá Boleslav
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v FK Teplice (H)1-0
- Oct 14 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v FC Zbrojovka Brno (H)2-0
- Sep 15 · at FK Třinec (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | SK Slavia Praha | Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.