Champions League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 10 · 19:00 · SK Slavia Praha vs RC Lens
Likeliest: RC Lens win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 34%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Slavia Praha36%38%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
RC Lens38%34%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 58% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 52% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Slavia Praha
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 5 · v FC Zbrojovka Brno (H)4-0
- Aug 30 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · v Bohemians Praha 1905 (H)2-2
- Aug 16 · at FC Slovan Liberec (A)1-1
- Aug 9 · v FK Pardubice (H)2-1
RC Lens
WinWinLossLoss
- Sep 5 · v Lorient (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Auxerre (H)5-2
- Aug 16 · v PSG (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | SK Slavia Praha | RC Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-0 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% | — |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.