Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Sep 20 · 16:00 · SK Slavia Praha vs Viktoria Plzeň
Likeliest: SK Slavia Praha win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Slavia Praha58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Viktoria Plzeň19%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Slavia Praha
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 16 · at FK Varnsdorf (A)5-1
- Sep 13 · at FK Teplice (A)2-0
- Sep 10 · v RC Lens (H)2-3
- Sep 5 · v FC Zbrojovka Brno (H)4-0
- Aug 30 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)3-0
Viktoria Plzeň
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 17 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · v SK Sigma Olomouc (H)2-3
- Sep 9 · at FC Hradec Králové (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · at SK Líšeň (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · v 1. FC Slovácko (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | SK Slavia Praha | Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.