Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 14 · 19:00 · ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 77%
Likely score: 1–2
A 77% away win. The market says 73%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ŠK Slovan Bratislava8%11%−3
OursMarket
Draw15%16%−1
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart77%73%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 23% | 27% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 93% | 89% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 9% | 13% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ŠK Slovan Bratislava
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at MFK Skalica (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at KFC Komárno (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · at FC Nitra (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v MŠK Žilina (H)3-3
- Sep 9 · at PSG (A)1-6
VfB Stuttgart
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-2
- Sep 9 · v Viking FK (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v 1. FC Köln (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | ŠK Slovan Bratislava | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.