Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · SK Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK 1902
Likeliest: SK Sturm Graz win · 54%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Sturm Graz54%57%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Grazer AK 190221%20%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Sturm Graz
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at Bournemouth (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · at Austria Wien (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · v Stade Rennais (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · v LASK (H)2-1
Grazer AK 1902
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Austria Wien (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at SC Rheindorf Altach (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at SV Ried (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | SK Sturm Graz | Grazer AK 1902 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.