Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Sep 13 · 15:00 · SK Sturm Graz vs LASK
Likeliest: LASK win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Sturm Graz29%31%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
LASK45%44%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Sturm Graz
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 30 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v SC Austria Lustenau (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)1-0
- Aug 11 · v Fenerbahçe (H)0-1
- Aug 8 · at TSV Hartberg (A)2-0
LASK
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 8 · at AEK Athens (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Wolfsberger AC (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)3-0
- Aug 25 · v Celtic (H)4-1
- Aug 19 · at Celtic (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | SK Sturm Graz | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.