Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:30 · SK Sturm Graz vs SV Ried
Likeliest: SK Sturm Graz win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SK Sturm Graz58%56%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
SV Ried20%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SK Sturm Graz
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Grazer AK 1902 (H)5-1
- Oct 15 · at Bournemouth (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · at Austria Wien (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · v Stade Rennais (H)0-0
SV Ried
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Austria Wien (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · at WSG Tirol (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)4-1
- Sep 11 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at TSV Hartberg (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | SK Sturm Graz | SV Ried |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.