3rd Division, Group 5 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Skedsmo vs Fløya
Likeliest: Skedsmo win · 39%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Skedsmo39%49%−11
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+4
OursMarket
Fløya35%29%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 71% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 71% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 63% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Skedsmo
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 4 · at Harstad IL (A)2-2
- Sep 26 · v IL Ulfstind (H)7-0
- Sep 19 · at Skjervøy (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Lillestrøm SK 2 (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Alta IF (A)0-0
Fløya
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Bossekop (H)5-1
- Sep 27 · at Strømsgodset II (A)4-2
- Sep 20 · v Finnsnes IL (H)3-1
- Sep 16 · v Rosenborg BK (H)1-4
- Sep 13 · at Kongsvinger 2 (A)5-1
| Last 10 games | Skedsmo | Fløya |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 3-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.