3rd Division, Group 5 (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 11:00 · Skjervøy vs Strømsgodset II
Likeliest: Skjervøy win · 46%
A 27% draw. The market says 22%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Skjervøy46%42%+4
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Strømsgodset II27%36%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 64% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 54% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Skjervøy
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Alta IF (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · v FK Fauske/Sprint (H)3-0
- Sep 26 · at Finnsnes IL (A)0-2
- Sep 22 · at Skjetten (A)1-6
- Sep 19 · v Skedsmo (H)1-2
Strømsgodset II
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Skjetten (H)5-1
- Oct 4 · at Lillestrøm SK 2 (A)3-3
- Sep 27 · v Fløya (H)2-4
- Sep 21 · at Alta IF (A)0-2
- Sep 14 · at FK Fauske/Sprint (A)3-5
| Last 10 games | Skjervøy | Strømsgodset II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.