3rd Division, Group 5 (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:30 · Skjetten vs Finnsnes IL
Likeliest: Skjetten win · 47%
A 27% draw. The market says 21%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Skjetten47%53%−7
OursMarket
Draw27%21%+6
OursMarket
Finnsnes IL26%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 71% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 47% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 68% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Skjetten
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Strømsgodset II (A)1-5
- Oct 6 · v Kongsvinger 2 (H)3-4
- Sep 27 · at Bossekop (A)3-0
- Sep 22 · v Skjervøy (H)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Harstad IL (A)1-3
Finnsnes IL
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · v IL Ulfstind (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Tromsø IL II (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Skjervøy (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Fløya (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Alta IF (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Skjetten | Finnsnes IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.