2. Liga (Austria) · Fri, Oct 16 · 16:30 · SKN St. Pölten vs Rapid Wien II
Likeliest: SKN St. Pölten win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SKN St. Pölten60%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Rapid Wien II19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 65% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SKN St. Pölten
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at First Vienna (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at FC Liefering (A)3-1
- Aug 28 · v Austria Salzburg (H)1-0
- Aug 21 · at FC Wacker Innsbruck (A)0-1
Rapid Wien II
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v FC Wacker Innsbruck (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Young Violets Austria Wien (A)1-4
- Sep 11 · v First Vienna (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Sturm Graz II (A)2-5
- Aug 22 · v Floridsdorfer AC (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | SKN St. Pölten | Rapid Wien II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-5 | 2-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.