Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 15:30 · Śląsk Wrocław vs Lech Poznań
Likeliest: Lech Poznań win · 63%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 63% for the away win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Śląsk Wrocław16%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%21%0
OursMarket
Lech Poznań63%60%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 24% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Śląsk Wrocław
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at Wisła Kraków (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v MKS Korona Kielce (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Legia Warszawa (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Widzew Łódź (H)3-3
Lech Poznań
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · v Radomiak Radom (H)5-1
- Sep 17 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-4
- Sep 12 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Śląsk Wrocław | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.