Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Oct 25 · 11:15 · Śląsk Wrocław vs Wieczysta Kraków
Likeliest: Wieczysta Kraków win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Śląsk Wrocław30%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Wieczysta Kraków44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Śląsk Wrocław
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Motor Lublin (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Lech Poznań (H)1-4
- Sep 18 · at Wisła Kraków (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v MKS Korona Kielce (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)1-2
Wieczysta Kraków
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 16 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)1-2
- Oct 12 · at GKS Katowice (A)1-2
- Oct 9 · v Wisła Płock (H)3-0
- Sep 18 · at Widzew Łódź (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Pogoń Szczecin (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Śląsk Wrocław | Wieczysta Kraków |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.