First League (Bulgaria) · Fri, Sep 18 · 17:00 · Slavia Sofia vs FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
Likeliest: FC CSKA 1948 Sofia win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Slavia Sofia19%21%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%27%+3
OursMarket
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia50%52%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 29% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Slavia Sofia
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 13 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)0-0
- Sep 7 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · v Levski Sofia (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · v FK Septemvri Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Ludogorets (A)1-1
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · v FK Dunav Ruse (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at FK Septemvri Sofia (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Cherno More Varna (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Slavia Sofia | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.