First League (Bulgaria) · Sun, Sep 13 · 12:15 · Slavia Sofia vs FK Spartak Varna
Likeliest: Slavia Sofia win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Slavia Sofia43%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
FK Spartak Varna27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Slavia Sofia
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 7 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · v Levski Sofia (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · v FK Septemvri Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Ludogorets (A)1-1
- Aug 10 · at Botev Vratsa (A)3-0
FK Spartak Varna
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · v CSKA Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Ludogorets (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-6
- Aug 17 · v FK Septemvri Sofia (H)0-1
- Aug 10 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Slavia Sofia | FK Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.