First League (Bulgaria) · Wed, Sep 2 · 17:00 · Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia
Likeliest: Levski Sofia win · 53%
A 25% home win. The market says 9%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Slavia Sofia25%9%+16
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Levski Sofia53%72%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 41% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 28% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 91% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 11% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Slavia Sofia
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Aug 28 · v FK Septemvri Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Ludogorets (A)1-1
- Aug 10 · at Botev Vratsa (A)3-0
- Jul 31 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)1-1
- Jul 24 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)0-1
Levski Sofia
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Aug 29 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)0-0
- Aug 26 · at AEK Athens (A)0-4
- Aug 22 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)6-0
- Aug 18 · v AEK Athens (H)0-0
- Aug 11 · at Kairat (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Slavia Sofia | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-7-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.