Premier Division (Ireland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 18:45 · Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk FC
Likeliest: Dundalk FC win · 58%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sligo Rovers18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Dundalk FC58%55%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 29% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sligo Rovers
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 9 · at Shelbourne (A)1-5
- Sep 19 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-1
- Sep 14 · v Galway United (H)1-3
- Sep 11 · at Drogheda United (A)0-2
- Aug 28 · at Bohemian FC (A)0-3
Dundalk FC
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 2 · v Bohemian FC (H)1-2
- Sep 18 · v Shelbourne (H)2-3
- Sep 14 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-4
- Sep 11 · at Waterford FC (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Drogheda United (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Sligo Rovers | Dundalk FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-4 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.