Premier Division (Ireland) · Mon, Sep 14 · 18:45 · Sligo Rovers vs Galway United
Likeliest: Sligo Rovers win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 32%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sligo Rovers37%32%+5
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Galway United36%41%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 53% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 68% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sligo Rovers
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 11 · at Drogheda United (A)0-2
- Aug 28 · at Bohemian FC (A)0-3
- Aug 21 · v Waterford FC (H)0-0
- Aug 7 · at Derry City (A)0-2
- Jul 31 · at Dundalk FC (A)1-1
Galway United
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 11 · v Bohemian FC (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Shelbourne (H)1-1
- Aug 21 · at Dundalk FC (A)2-1
- Aug 7 · v Drogheda United (H)0-0
- Aug 2 · at Bohemian FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sligo Rovers | Galway United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-2 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.