Premier Division (Ireland) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:45 · Sligo Rovers vs St. Patrick's Athletic
Likeliest: St. Patrick's Athletic win · 71%
A tight one: we make it 71% for the away win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sligo Rovers9%12%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%20%0
OursMarket
St. Patrick's Athletic71%67%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 29% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 91% | 88% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 11% | 15% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sligo Rovers
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 14 · v Galway United (H)1-3
- Sep 11 · at Drogheda United (A)0-2
- Aug 28 · at Bohemian FC (A)0-3
- Aug 21 · v Waterford FC (H)0-0
- Aug 7 · at Derry City (A)0-2
St. Patrick's Athletic
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 14 · at Dundalk FC (A)4-0
- Sep 11 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Waterford FC (H)0-2
- Aug 21 · at Drogheda United (A)2-0
- Aug 9 · at Shelbourne (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Sligo Rovers | St. Patrick's Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-3 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.