Premier League (Egypt) · Tue, Sep 8 · 17:00 · Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra
Likeliest: Ceramica Cleopatra win · 39%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Smouha34%27%+6
OursMarket
Draw27%34%−7
OursMarket
Ceramica Cleopatra39%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 34% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 73% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 66% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 41% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Smouha
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 3 · at Al Ahly FC (A)0-1
- Aug 26 · v Asyut Petroleum (H)0-0
- Aug 22 · at Al-Masry (A)0-1
- May 20 · at Pyramids FC (A)1-2
- May 5 · v Zamalek (H)0-1
Ceramica Cleopatra
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 2 · v Modern Sport FC (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Al-Ittihad Alexandria (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Canal SC (H)1-2
- May 20 · at Zamalek (A)0-1
- May 5 · v Pyramids FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Smouha | Ceramica Cleopatra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.