Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00 · Sønderjyske Fodbold vs Randers FC
Likeliest: Randers FC win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sønderjyske Fodbold30%32%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Randers FC43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sønderjyske Fodbold
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 16 · at AB (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Lyngby (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v AC Horsens (H)2-5
- Aug 31 · at FC København (A)1-3
- Aug 23 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)0-3
Randers FC
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 16 · at Vendsyssel FF (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Odense Boldklub (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Brøndby IF (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · v AGF (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at FC Midtjylland (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Sønderjyske Fodbold | Randers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.