3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · Sogndal IL II vs Gneist
Likeliest: Sogndal IL II win · 47%
A 27% draw. The market says 20%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sogndal IL II47%55%−8
OursMarket
Draw27%20%+7
OursMarket
Gneist27%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 80% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 68% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sogndal IL II
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Austevoll (H)2-3
- Sep 26 · at Djerv 1919 (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Vard Haugesund (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · at Varegg (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Fyllingsdalen (H)7-0
Gneist
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Djerv 1919 (H)0-5
- Sep 26 · at Austevoll (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Varegg (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Fyllingsdalen (A)2-1
- Sep 7 · v Asane Fotball 2 (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Sogndal IL II | Gneist |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.