1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Sogndal IL vs Kongsvinger
Likeliest: Kongsvinger win · 61%
Likely score: 1–2
A 61% away win. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sogndal IL20%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Kongsvinger61%56%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 72% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 44% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 30% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 2.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sogndal IL
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Egersund (A)3-3
- Oct 14 · v Odds BK (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Åsane (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Sotra (A)1-1
Kongsvinger
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)4-0
- Oct 14 · at Strømsgodset (A)1-5
- Oct 11 · v Ranheim IL (H)6-2
- Oct 5 · at Moss FK (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Hødd IL (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Sogndal IL | Kongsvinger |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.