1. Division (Norway) · Wed, Oct 14 · 17:00 · Sogndal IL vs Odds BK
Likeliest: Odds BK win · 47%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sogndal IL29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Odds BK47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sogndal IL
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Åsane (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Sotra (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Strømmen IF (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Haugesund (A)0-2
Odds BK
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Bryne FK (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Hødd IL (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · v Egersund (H)5-1
- Sep 16 · at Notodden FK (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · at Raufoss (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Sogndal IL | Odds BK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-3 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.