1. Division (Norway) · Wed, Oct 21 · 17:00 · Sogndal IL vs Raufoss
Likeliest: Sogndal IL win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sogndal IL60%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Raufoss20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sogndal IL
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Egersund (A)3-3
- Oct 14 · v Odds BK (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Åsane (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Sotra (A)1-1
Raufoss
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Hødd IL (A)1-5
- Oct 14 · at Bryne FK (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Moss FK (H)1-2
- Oct 6 · v IK Start (H)1-5
- Sep 20 · v Strømsgodset (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Sogndal IL | Raufoss |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.