National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Solihull Moors vs Carlisle United
Likeliest: Carlisle United win · 60%
Likely score: 1–2
A 60% away win. The market says 56%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Solihull Moors18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%23%0
OursMarket
Carlisle United60%56%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Solihull Moors
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Kidderminster Harriers (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Worthing FC (A)0-5
- Oct 3 · v FC Halifax Town (H)0-2
- Sep 29 · at Woking (A)4-2
- Sep 26 · v Boreham Wood (H)0-3
Carlisle United
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Tamworth (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Kidderminster Harriers (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Aldershot Town (A)3-1
- Sep 29 · at AFC Fylde (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Woking (H)2-5
| Last 10 games | Solihull Moors | Carlisle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-7 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.