National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Solihull Moors vs FC Halifax Town
Likeliest: Solihull Moors win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Solihull Moors41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Halifax Town33%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Solihull Moors
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 29 · at Woking (A)4-2
- Sep 26 · v Boreham Wood (H)0-3
- Sep 18 · at Yeovil Town (A)1-4
- Sep 15 · v Barrow AFC (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Aldershot Town (H)1-2
FC Halifax Town
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 29 · v Boston United (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Worthing FC (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Sutton United (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Wealdstone (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Hornchurch (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Solihull Moors | FC Halifax Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-7 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.