V-League (Vietnam) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:00 · Sông Lam Nghệ An vs Hồ Chí Minh City
Likeliest: Sông Lam Nghệ An win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sông Lam Nghệ An36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Hồ Chí Minh City35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sông Lam Nghệ An
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Hà Nội (A)4-1
- Sep 6 · v Bắc Ninh FC (H)1-0
- Jun 7 · v PVF-Công An Nhân Dân (H)1-3
- Jun 7 · v PVF-CAND (H)1-3
- May 31 · at Thép Xanh Nam Định (A)0-3
Hồ Chí Minh City
DrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 11 · at Bắc Ninh FC (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Hà Nội (H)3-1
- Jun 7 · at Hà Nội (A)1-1
- May 31 · v Thể Công - Viettel (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sông Lam Nghệ An | Hồ Chí Minh City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.