Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Sat, Sep 26 · 16:00 · South Africa vs Guinea
Likeliest: South Africa win · 44%
A 36% draw. The market says 30%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
South Africa44%49%−5
OursMarket
Draw36%30%+6
OursMarket
Guinea21%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 38% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 70% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
South Africa
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Jun 28 · v Canada (H)0-1
- Jun 25 · v South Korea (H)1-0
- Jun 18 · at Czechia (A)1-1
- Jun 11 · at Mexico (A)0-2
- Jun 6 · at Jamaica (A)1-1
Guinea
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Jun 4 · at Northern Ireland (A)0-1
- Mar 31 · v Benin (H)0-1
- Mar 27 · at Togo (A)2-2
- Nov 18 · at Niger (A)1-1
- Nov 15 · v Liberia (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | South Africa | Guinea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.