Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Fri, Nov 13 · 16:00 · South Africa vs Kenya
Likeliest: South Africa win · 64%
Likely scores: 1–0 16% · 2–1 16% · 0–0 13%
We make it 44% for both teams to score. The market says 31%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
South Africa64%73%−10
OursMarket
Draw28%20%+8
OursMarket
Kenya9%7%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 31% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 93% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 27% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 91% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
South Africa
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 4 · at Egypt (A)1-0
- Sep 30 · at Eritrea (A)5-0
- Sep 26 · v Guinea (H)2-1
- Jun 28 · v Canada (H)0-1
- Jun 25 · v South Korea (H)1-0
Kenya
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 5 · at Rwanda (A)0-0
- Oct 1 · at Guinea (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Eritrea (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Lesotho (H)4-0
- Jun 4 · at Lesotho (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | South Africa | Kenya |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-2 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.