Friendly International (World) · Tue, Oct 6 · 11:00 · South Korea vs Uzbekistan
Likeliest: South Korea win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
South Korea61%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Uzbekistan15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
South Korea
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 2 · v Venezuela (H)0-0
- Sep 28 · v Uruguay (H)1-4
- Sep 24 · v Ecuador (H)3-0
- Jun 25 · at South Africa (A)0-1
- Jun 19 · at Mexico (A)0-1
Uzbekistan
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 1 · v Syria (H)4-1
- Sep 24 · v Iran (H)3-1
- Jun 27 · at DR Congo (A)1-3
- Jun 23 · at Portugal (A)0-5
- Jun 18 · v Colombia (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | South Korea | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.