Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 · Southampton vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 48%
A 48% away win. The market says 32%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton26%40%−14
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Birmingham City48%32%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 68% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 60% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 56% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 29 · at Millwall (A)2-3
- Nov 25 · v Leicester City (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Charlton Athletic (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)3-1
- Nov 5 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
Birmingham City
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 1 · v Watford (H)2-1
- Nov 26 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Norwich City (H)4-1
- Nov 8 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Nov 4 · v Millwall (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.