Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Southampton win · 71%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton71%68%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Bolton Wanderers12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 32% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 14 · at Norwich City (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Wrexham (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Bristol City (H)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Swansea City (H)3-1
Bolton Wanderers
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 13 · at Wolverhampton (A)3-1
- Oct 10 · v Stoke City (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Norwich City (A)4-3
- Sep 12 · v Cardiff City (H)1-0
- Sep 8 · v West Ham United (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.