Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 21 · 18:45 · Southampton vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Southampton win · 59%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton59%66%−6
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
Bristol City19%14%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 57% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 86% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 34% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 83% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 18 · at Swansea City (A)2-1
- Apr 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Derby County (H)2-1
- Apr 7 · at Wrexham (A)5-1
- Apr 4 · v Arsenal (H)2-1
Bristol City
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 18 · v Norwich City (H)2-4
- Apr 11 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
- Apr 3 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.