Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Southampton vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Southampton win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Bristol City20%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 8 · v Swansea City (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Lincoln City (A)1-1
- Sep 1 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Millwall (H)5-1
- Aug 25 · v West Ham United (H)1-4
Bristol City
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · at Burnley (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Portsmouth (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Millwall (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.