Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 28 · 18:45 · Southampton vs Ipswich Town
Likeliest: Southampton win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 42%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton54%42%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Ipswich Town23%30%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 58% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 58% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Bristol City (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Swansea City (A)2-1
- Apr 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Derby County (H)2-1
Ipswich Town
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Apr 25 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Apr 22 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Apr 19 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Apr 14 · at Portsmouth (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Norwich City (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.