Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 25 · 20:00 · Southampton vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Southampton win · 42%
A 31% away win. The market says 27%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton42%46%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Leicester City31%27%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 73% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 64% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
LossLossWinWinWin
- Nov 22 · at Charlton Athletic (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)3-1
- Nov 5 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
- Nov 1 · v Preston North End (H)0-2
- Oct 25 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-2
Leicester City
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Nov 22 · v Stoke City (H)2-1
- Nov 8 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
- Nov 4 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-1
- Nov 1 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-2
- Oct 25 · at Millwall (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.