FA Cup (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:00 · Southampton vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Southampton win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton51%53%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Leicester City24%22%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 71% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Feb 10 · at Leicester City (A)4-3
- Feb 7 · v Watford (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · at Stoke City (A)2-0
- Jan 25 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
Leicester City
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 10 · v Southampton (H)3-4
- Feb 7 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Jan 31 · v Charlton Athletic (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · v Oxford United (H)1-2
- Jan 20 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.