Championship (England) · Tue, May 12 · 19:00 · Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Southampton win · 48%
We make it 71% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton48%39%+10
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Middlesbrough26%34%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 55% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 66% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 61% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 54% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- May 9 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- May 2 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Apr 28 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Bristol City (H)2-2
Middlesbrough
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- May 9 · v Southampton (H)0-0
- May 2 · at Wrexham (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Watford (H)5-1
- Apr 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at Ipswich Town (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.