Championship (England) · Thu, Jan 1 · 15:00 · Southampton vs Millwall
Likeliest: Southampton win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton54%53%0
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Millwall23%22%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 71% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Dec 29 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Dec 26 · at Oxford United (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · v Coventry City (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Dec 9 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
Millwall
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Dec 29 · v Bristol City (H)2-1
- Dec 26 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-2
- Dec 13 · v Hull City (H)1-3
- Dec 10 · at Derby County (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.