Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:00 · Southampton vs Millwall
Likeliest: Southampton win · 52%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton52%48%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Millwall24%26%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 52% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 65% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 25 · v West Ham United (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · v Stoke City (H)3-1
- Aug 16 · at Watford (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Colchester United (A)2-0
- May 12 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-1
Millwall
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 25 · at Cambridge United (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Norwich City (H)3-0
- Aug 15 · at Bristol City (A)2-0
- Aug 8 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-1
- May 11 · v Hull City (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.