Championship (England) · Wed, Mar 18 · 19:45 · Southampton vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Southampton win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Norwich City29%26%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 65% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Mar 14 · at Coventry City (A)2-1
- Mar 11 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-1
- Feb 24 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)5-0
Norwich City
WinWinLossWinWin
- Mar 14 · v Preston North End (H)2-0
- Mar 11 · v Sheffield United (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at Leeds United (A)0-3
- Feb 28 · at Leicester City (A)2-0
- Feb 25 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.