Championship (England) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:00 · Southampton vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Southampton win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Southampton60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Portsmouth17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Southampton
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Wrexham (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Bristol City (H)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Swansea City (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Lincoln City (A)1-1
- Sep 1 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
Portsmouth
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Cardiff City (H)2-0
- Sep 1 · v Derby County (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Bristol City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Southampton | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.